By With only a week left before the election, Trump’s campaign is gaining momentum. But is this final push enough to secure a win? Our experts share their insights.
As our experts share their final predictions, the race to the White House remains incredibly close, with polls shifting slightly in both directions. The presidential outcome is tough to call, adding to the anticipation and uncertainty. With everything on the line, the true decision will rest on election day itself. Amid this unpredictability, our experts lean slightly toward Donald Trump, although this forecast is influenced by instinct as much as by data.
Trump Reporter
Who will win the election? Honestly, it’s impossible to say for sure. Pollsters and analysts alike are uncertain, reflecting the unpredictability of this race. Financial markets are leaning toward Kamala Harris, while betting markets favor Donald Trump. National polls and swing state numbers are within the margin of error, meaning the race is too close to call based on available data.
That said, the atmosphere in Trump’s camp is notably more optimistic than in Harris’s. After an early boost in the polls, Trump has gained momentum in recent weeks. His shift in stance on early voting has paid off, with Republicans seeing an increase in early ballots cast. However, concerns remain in Pennsylvania, where GOP strategists worry Trump’s ground game has fallen short, while Harris’s supporters have turned out in strong early numbers. Once again, the outcome may hinge on the Keystone State.
Historian’s view
Donald Trump is polling better now than he did in 2016 and 2020, possibly because pollsters have adjusted for previous miscalculations or because he’s become a stronger candidate than anticipated. Privately, his team is hopeful they might even secure the popular vote. In the final stretch, voters can suddenly shift, becoming “undecided” and making decisive switches; Reagan’s surge after the 1980 debate is a classic example.
Yet, the 2024 race remains largely unchanged, with both parties focused on energizing their core supporters. Republicans are drawing attention with edgy humor aimed at diverse groups, while Democrats are hosting rallies emphasizing reproductive rights. The campaign has been explosive and high-energy but has shed little new insight on key issues.
Crunching the numbers
Throughout the election, I’ve maintained that with swing state margins often within one or two points, polling remains too close to be definitive.
Still, it’s hard to overlook the history of pollsters underestimating Trump’s support. As the campaign winds down, Trump holds a lead in five out of seven key swing states, which could secure him the presidency. This is the first time in his three elections he’s led in so many crucial states.
Meanwhile, Harris’s campaign has lost steam. Polls indicate her popularity is slipping rather than rising. Her path to the White House depends on winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, and either Wisconsin or Nevada—an increasingly tough combination to achieve. However, Trump’s past election nights have been full of surprises, and Tuesday may well be the same.
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